Oh, here we are, the week before the elections just officially began.
That means that next Monday we will wake up and Mr. Mentana, after 63 hours on air, will tell us who won the elections.
More or less.
While the parties will put a good amount of effort in telling us that they have won, each and everyone of them,
independently of what will be the true result of the election
as everyone always finds an excuse to say that the victory is of his, even if just relative,
you will se how I am right,
the common opinion is that none of the parties, may them be or not in a coalition, will obtain enough votes to form a government on its own.
And even if making complicated previsions is cool, it is a very hard thing too,
The electoral law is relatively new and it is complicated too,
so, fundamentally, nobody can really tell what will happen.
But let us clarify a thing, so that we will avoid the ubiquitous voices that yell against the "Government that has not been elected by the people":
it is very likely that the next government won't be "elected by the people",
because even without making the precise consideration that the government isn't really elected by the people, that is the parliament,
it is more likely that we will rather have some kind of transversal alliance that still cannot be clearly seen.
And this taking aside those "big boys"
that believe to be funny (even if they aren't)
because since months ago they tell the "laughable" one-liner about "Renzusconi".
Ah ah ah, understood? Because Renzi plus Berlusconi equal Renzusconi,
And then they say that in Italy we do not make satire...
For the ones that are not so used to how the elections work,
first of all: it's not your fault,
this things are scarcely and badly explained in school, [or, you know, maybe you are a foreigner, pretty obvious as you're using the english subtitles],
but the crucial part to understand what will happen,
is the phase after the elections, that usually lasts some weeks and is called "Consultations"
this means that the first days after the elections, in march, there will be a great amount of confusion, people yelling that a plot has been made or maybe a coup, others writing in caps-lock basically everywhere
politicians saying awkward things, in other words, it will be a beautiufl moment.
For me, not for Italy,
but after Salvini that made an oath with his hand on the Gospel in a public square, we have buried even the simple illusion of being normal country.
the important thing to consider, however, is that the 5th of march, independently of what people say, nothing bad will happen,
except quarrels on facebook and people complaining.
In fact, for those who do not remember, five years ago the analysis told that the moral winner of the elections was Berlusconi,
that had indeed taken less votes that the PD, but had still been choosen by a big part of italians, no matter the situation,
opinions that doesn't look so correct now that we know how the legislature went.
The person in charge of forming the government, considering the political equilibrium and the percentages that there will be in the parliament,
will be nominate by the President of the Republic: Sergio Mattarella
because the decision will be made by him after the "Consultations" (that basically are meetings with the people that aspire to lead the country).
and, to an aspirant, the charge of forming the government will be given, after the new parliament political equilibrium will be clear.
Understanding this passage is a fundamental step that will work as an anti-ignorance/anti-populism vaccine.
because Mr. Mattarella isn't forced to give the charge to a person coming from the party with the biggest share of the votes, to a member of the parliament or to a lider of a coalition,
he can basically nominate whomever he wants, because in the end it is the same parliament that, thorugh a vote, will decide if the government will rule or not.
so, it is in the interest of the President of the Republic to nominate someone that will be capable of maintaining a majority inside the parliament.
because if he nominated his nephew, for example, no party will allow the government to rule, and nothing would work.
Here we have many possibilities, there are many, but let's consider just the main ones, so that we can have an idea of what awaits us:
First option: the elections give us a clear majority,
maybe a centre-right majority, for it is the favoured one, maybe a centre-left majority, for you never know, or maybe even the M5S, have a share high enough to govern alone,
thus voting for their nominated lider.
That would be the better case, Mr. Mattarella would give the charge of PM to Di Maio, or maybe even Gentiloni, Salvini or Berlusconi's heir
Maybe Topo Gigio, Grey worm, Drake, Gold Drake...
The party votes and there you have it: new government, easy.
This option is unlikely on a various degree, depending on who you ask,
but the result would be a probably-stable government.
Second option, more likely: after the election no party obtains a clear majority.
the various parties will then quarrel among themselves. This is the funny part.
Politics, independently of this ridiculous electoral campaign, is compromise,
reason why we cannot know in large avance what will happen
there could be a centre-right government, with exterior support and people coming from other lists
that will give the coalition the needed majority.
In that case parties would make deals among themselves, some of them asking mainly to put some persons of theirs in prestigeous positions,
perhaps a ministry
in other cases they will just give external support.
everybody will obviously yell that there have been disonest agreements among the parties
and will repeat the accusation everywhere, at the bar, in the newspapers, in blogs, in love notes, the ones that usually accompaign flowers,
but this is how politics work after all,
especially in such a type of proportional system.
An example coul be CasaPound getting the minimum number of votes to stay in the parliament, thus giving the approval of his members to someone,
and to them we might add people from the M5S "expelled" form the party even before the elections,
or maybe the very same M5S, or just part of it (secession have to be always considered), would vote in favour of the government in order to establish a collaboration with it to reach "common program goals",
Di Maio often says this.
Or maybe we could also imagine Forza Italia obtaining more votes than previously thought, thus deciding to break his old alliances and making a new alliance with the PD.
Or maybe the PD and the M5S becoming allies,
or the M5S governing with external support,
Like the Lega,
always keeping in mind that this arrangements could be made without the party leaders knowledge,
basically a "side-switching" of deputies and senators (thing that, for exampe, helped the PD inthe last legislature),
good examples of this are Alfano and Verdini,
them being parliamentarians that supported the left-wing government even if they were right-wing.
Keep in mind anyway that usually this type of governments o not last for long.
I know that all of this seems absurd, but in order to unerstand all of this it is important to forget the current alliances,
because even if electoral coalitions are made with the alliances of today, governing coalitions will be formed depending on the after-elections percentages,
that could indeed be different from today's ones.
Obviously, there is also a last scenario, a one that truly frightens me,
and I deem unlikely to happen, for just-elected parliamentarians have no interest in that happening, just after having obtained a chair:
going back to vote.
In fact, before yelling at the President of the Republic,
even if I can already see the posts with written: "damned Mattarella, for you didn't make Di Maio premier",
we also have to consider the small possibility of nobody wanting to collaborate with anybody among the big parties,
thus creating a standoff that cannot be surpassed.
In fact the M5S doesn't want to make a deal with the PD,
"because it is made up of thieves",
the PD does not want to ally with the centre-right,
"because it is made up of xenophobics"
and the centre-right doesn't want to ally with the M5S,
"because it is unreliable",
and so on...
In this mexican standoff, the President of the Republic might feel forced, after a priod of trial and error, not to nominate anybody,
cancel the result of the elections, and schedule new ones,
and even in that case, precise previsions cannot be made,
because maybe a new government to write a new electoral law would be nedeed, but who would vote for that government?
And who would vote the new electoral law?
Continuing with politics, we still have interesting news,
starting with something that you have begged me to show in the most intense way in all the channel's history probably:
the segment of Last Week Tonight of John Oliver,
where he talks about the imminent italian elections.
I really do advise to whatch it, but going in the comment zone is not so advised,
because there you will find waves of italians complaining, with an embarassing english, about how John Oliver made jokes about all parties, extreme-left ones excluded.
And the "Par condicio"?
Do you now see that I am right when I say that Italians are obsessioned with the concept of par condicio? They lust for it!
This is the very nation in which, as long as everybody has the same treatment, it is not important if they cover you in shit, or if they beat you, even if it can be avoided.
Casual user took randomly from the comments, whose name is "Big weight", what will happen after the elections?
"We shall all die"!
Ah, there is even an english translation, so that everybody, no matter the language, will understand.
I already said this in less dangerous times and for heavyer segments,
This in the end is just a satirical segment,
It is important to listen to foreign opinions about our country,
even if they cannot understand all the shades of our system,
and we cannot understand the shades of theirs.
Because maybe their voices will be like that friendly one that before going out tells you:
are you sure that you should go out dressed like this?
and makes you look in the mirror, even if for just a second.
For example, how do I explain this to a foreigner:
Saturday, in many italian cities, manifestations took place,
the one in the capitol, in particular, was oranized by the ANPI,
where they condamned the Macerata shooting ad showed a strong anti-fascist sentiment.
Even the left managed to attend the manifestation relatively united:
There were Gentiloni, Boldrini, Grasso, Renzi, Camusso, a fairly high number of people,
but meanwhile plenty of things where happening,
In this weekend, in fact, Giorgia Meloni organized a counter manifestation called "Let's take back our streets",
while CasaPound organized a rally, always in Milan like the other one, that was criticized by left-wing demonstrators,
that now appear to use the YPG flag, like a 2.0 palestinian flag.
Meanwhile, always in Milan, Salvini went through another rally, where he managed to show the nationalistic spirit of his party (like many others in Europe), by holding a rosary in his hand.
We will clarify later.
In all of this the police made some irony about "feeling safe", for amnesty international observers where in Rome's manifestation,
controlling the police, so to discover and report any excessive use of force by the police.
may someone guarantee that the rules are respected eh, lese-majeste of the police corps.
All of this in a period of time full of clashes and stabbings, only a week before the elections.
You may agree with me when I say that this is not what we usually call a perfectly normal country,
the problem is that it looks normal to us italians, for we got used to it,
we basically criticize other people for what they do in their homes, but then we do even worse things in our home.
Now, in order to close this episode in a "light" way, I wanted to talk about the thing that happened with Salvini,
that did a thing with a different yield for everybody, depending on the point of view of the observer.
morally clashing even with the archbishop of Milan (and that takes effort),
seeking for popular approval he first took out of his pocket a rosary (of which he also told the supposed story that we will always remember, like a beutiful movie),
and the took the oath of prime minister before even being nominated so,
and he did it in the square in fron of everybody, like if it was nothing.
Now, we obviously do not go against it completely, everybody has the right to propagandize himself how he likes the most,
an if you think about it it resembles the "deal with the italian people" that Berlusconi made a lot of time ago,
deal that also Di Maio wrote down ten days ago, but he wrote it down with all the worng verb tenses.
But the interesting thing about Salvini's actions is that, after the rosary he didn't swear only on the constituition but also on the Gospel,
promising to forward his teachings and citing the Gospel of Mattew, specifically in the part in which is written that those who are the last will be the first.
Obviously with the meaning that the italians are the lasts, "surpassed by the immigrants that steal, and live in five star hotels".
So the idea is always the same: "you that vote for me are the last, but by voting for me you will be the first".
It is the Gospel of Mattew's version in which you can choose if you are first or last.
But that is not the topic that I want to discuss with you, even if I can joke about it forever,
and I will, the ones that think that those like me will be useless after the fifth of march are wrong,
the beautiful part begins now and I cannot wait for it.
The problem is the sudden approach of the Lega to the topics of the other right-wing european parties,
especially to Le Pen's ideas, that seem to continously affect the Lega,
that never resembled the "Front National", in fact they weren't close on behaviour in front of fascism, they weren't close on independentism, and even their behaviour towards the church wasn't similar.
This distance started to vanish in the electoral campaign period, for electoralal reasons,
trying to show himself as paladin of the western world and fowarding the transformation of the party,
thing that old members don't like, like Maroni: governor of Lombardy, that didn't attend the rally.
For being an anti-EU party we have to admit that it has heavy european influences.
This was everything for today, thank you for watching.
If you want to ask me who pays me, or if you just want to insult me, you can do that below,
but I shall spare you from that effort and, for par condicio, I'll tell you that Renzi is ugly and fat, Boldrini is the immigrant's friend,
Potere al popolo, violent communists, shoul be ashamed of themseves (by the way, that hair cut is indeed ugly),
Emma Bonino is satan's avatar that plans to kill all children in their sleep, and Gentiloni, well, you can't criticize him.
today's alfiere is Fabrizio, younger than me but better-looking while wearing a suit,
and he is sending this photo to us from Beijing, where he works, another proof that everybody is on a trip (even in china), me excluded.
be good, be ready to lick the pencils, or your vote will be stolen, and we will see ourselves tomorrow.