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We have been looking in my group
at the regional impacts of
global climate change. The
change in the climate that will
result from changing in the
chemical composition of the
atmosphere. Change in the
concentration of the
atmosphere and change in the
concentration of carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases.
And instead of focusing on the
global scale we have been
looking at the regional scale.
And the results of our research
pin-point a region where we
think the impacts of global
climate change with be quite
severe in terms of temperature.
However instead of focusing on
the regular temperature that
everyone is used to, we are
focusing on a variable we call
the "wet bulb temperature".
And the wet bulb temperature
measures temperature conditions
and humidity conditions at the
same time. And the reason we
choose to look at the wet bulb
temperature is because it is a
measurement that has direct
impact on human health.
For maintaining the inner
temperature of a human body
at around 37 degrees centigrade
you need to have wet bulb
temperature conditions that are
35 degrees centigrade or less.
And that would enable the body
to get rid of the metabolic heat
that gets generated. Approach
and exceed 35 degrees centigrade
it will not be physically
feasible for the body to get
rid of that heat. And that
would lead to hyperthermia
and may lead to deaths for
some of the people who get
exposed to that. So the main
finding of this study is the
projection that in cities and
localities around the Persian
Gulf also known as the Arabian
Gulf, conditions in the future,
towards the end of the 21st
century, would be such that the
wet bulb temperature will
approach and exceed 35 degrees
centigrade. I would like to
emphasize, however, that
exceeding 35 degrees centigrade
will not be a frequent
occurence in the future even
under the business as usual
scenario. Such rare heat waves
are projected to occur only once
every decade or every few
decades. The same modeling
results that performed indicate
that under scenarios in which
we assume that serious mitigation
efforts are being taken to
reduce the emissions of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse
gases, and its those conditions
the impacts of global climate
change on temperature
conditions in southwest asia
will not be as severe as in the
case of the business-as-usual
scenario.